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March 26th, 2002. Posted in Author's articles

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Sanctions against Belarus or why foreign investors ignore A.Lukashenka’s “instructions” (analytical notes)

In the course of evolution of the human and development of a human society some have been developed the general for the majority of people of a norm of behavior. The scientist of ancient China Confucius (6 – 5 centuries B.C.) has formulated it so: «That you do not wish yourself that do not do to another». Unfortunately, in a life this principle far was not always observed, but it is a separate theme about which it is possible to speak infinitely.

In this case it will be a question of norms of behavior of the states and the governments. Such norms of behavior were established and established by the international contracts. In one cases such contracts representatives of two states, in others representatives of the majority of the countries of the world, depending on a contract subject sign.

After the Second World War of the country winners have formed the United Nations Organization (United Nations) in which charter have in general defined rules of behaviors of the states on international scene. In due course the majority of the countries became members of this organization, and today in this organization 190 states of the world consist.

Except the United Nations there are also other organizations of the states in different regions of the world which urged to settle any local interstate problems. The international organizations of such scale closest to us are the European organizations, called to provide safety and cooperation in Europe. One of such large organizations is OSCE about what we often hear in all mass-media. The majority of certificates and contracts of this representative international organization is signed also by representatives of a management of Belarus. They, in general, regulate behavior of the government both in the country, and behind its limits. It is possible to tell, that they realized principles of Confucius in interstate relations. Universal values, as a rule, undertook a basis of these contracts, such as human rights for a life, a freedom of speech, a freedom of worship etc. Having signed corresponding documents, the government of Belarus thereby was obliged them to carry out but as it has appeared, only in words.

A.Lukashenka in the performances often underlines, that Belarus is in the geographical centre of Europe, and anybody from Europe cannot expose it.

As to a geographical site of Belarus then questions are not present, but the political site of Belarus raises certain doubts, it is possible even to assume, that Belarus is more likely somewhere about Iraq or Libya, instead of in the centre of Europe.

Those who though are interested in a policy a little, know, that Europe unites. In Europe the uniform currency “Euro” is already entered. At the ignorant can raise a question: For what they do it, and voluntary? Do they live badly? There is an association to favorably all uniting states. There are many reasons on which it is favorable, but basically benefit consists that: First, incorporated Europe provides the big political stability. Secondly, absence of borders provides free movement of people and capitals that favors to development of entrepreneurship activity (business) and, finally, even more raises a population standard of life.

Again there can be a question: If so it is good in incorporated Europe why us there not to enter? Our neighbors Poland and Lithuania entered there. But, that there will enter should be executed variety of obligatory conditions. What it for conditions? If in brief a state political system, its democratic character, independence of branches of the power, independence of mass-media, a freedom of speech, the legislation, economy, should correspond to the European standards. In its today’s condition anybody there will not accept Belarus, since on one of the named points there is no even a hint on conformity to these standards. It is necessary to note also, in one country of Europe there is no such position when one person, let even the president, has concentrated in the all power: legislative, executive, judicial, has subordinated to itself mass-media, actually individually solves practically any state questions. In the democratic countries for a long time have come to conclusion, that what would not be clever or even the ingenious one person, it cannot be out of the control from a society. But it there, and at all of us is solved by one person – is A.Lukashenka. From a skin the high-grade parliament, democracy, a freedom of speech etc. All the same climb to prove governmental structures under control to it as if at us so it would be desirable to get to Europe, but in Europe not such gawks that them to make a fool. There is a proverb: «the Nasty sheep can spoil all herd». Probably from these positions politicians of the European countries when interfere with the introduction into their union of the countries mismatching the European concepts of democracy proceed.

Our governmental ideologists speak: do not accept! Well and it is fine, we will live, we are owners here, both want, and we live! We are proud country, guerrilla! There is nothing us to impose the standards!

Basically the true share is in it. It happens: there are live two neighbors. One is workman, the house is well-groomed, in a family there is a prosperity, children are dressed, are full, there are the peace and an order. The second is idler and the brawler, the house is in desolation, poverty, children are hungry, constantly beats the wife and children. But from himself such proud and self-satisfied. What will be, if hardworking neighbor rebukes careless to the neighbor? Certainly! Will apprehend it in bayonets! That is we have.

Hardworking neighbor can spit, give up as a bad job: And it is fine, live, as you want! Frequently in a life and occurs. But here is another. What if the brawler-neighbor will start to do mucks to the neighbors? Then neighbors already will start to take to the brawler of measures to protect themselves from its dirty tricks. It is easy to guess, who can be meant for the brawler on international scene.
Who does not trouble itself with observance of rules of behavior on international scene who has managed fall out almost with all world community and whom accuse of delivery the weapon to terrorists and the countries “derelicts”?
The US State department has declared on February, 28th about possible introduction of sanctions against Belarus in connection with charges in delivery of the weapon to the countries or the groups supporting terrorism.

So, sanctions, what is this and in what they will result? For today the concept of “sanction” against any state means, that this state will be isolated from other world. As a rule, restrictions on trade with this country are entered. These restrictions can be the most different, beginning from restriction on deliveries of the weapon before introduction of the additional duty on the goods delivered from this country. Most a vivid example of introduction of sanctions, sanctions against Iraq are. There is no need to explain, for as they have been entered to tell enough, that sanctions it is a serious thing. As a result of introduction of these sanctions Iraq from is no time the rich country, with a high standard of living of the population, has turned to the country where the population tests shortage of the foodstuffs, medicines and many other things the goods.

It is well-known, any country in the world is not capable to make all and everything and the majority of the countries of the world unite, there is an integration process. For example, the World Trade Organization (WTO) is created. Integration provides the best division of labor between the countries, and the majority of sane politicians of all world have already understood advantage of integration. There is enough, even fluently to look on card of the world and becomes clear, the highest standard of life there where these processes have left far enough.

More recently in the WTO China has been accepted. It would seem, such huge country, with its powerful economy, the big natural resources, from it more than the milliard population, could itself will provide with all necessary. But China achieved an accession to WTO of 15 years, and has achieved. It means, even for China it is very important, let alone such concerning the small countries as Belarus.

What “shines” for Belarus in case of acceptance against it sanctions. Yes, it still remains in the geographical centre of Europe, but in even more isolated, away from progress.

A.Lukashenka so likes to speak about new technologies, about investments, about progress in the industry and agriculture. In 1996 under his «the sensitive management» had been accepted the National program of attraction of investments in which it “was recommended” to foreign investors to enclose for five years to Belarus 25mlrd dollars, but foreign investors have for some reason ignored A.Lukashenka’s “instructions”. Anybody from large investors has not wanted, that of its money “thriftily” disposed A.G., and investments for this period have made all 66million Dollars. By the way, in the new project of the program, foreign investors are offered to enclose (read to give to order of A.G…) still 13mlrd Dollars. In transfer into a household situation with the neighbor it will sound so: you the neighbor-brawler has considered, that at you money of a hen do not peck, and has suggested you to “invest” in its “economy” (to give on sing), pair of thousand dollars. What you as the neighbor will tell? Yes, twist a finger at a temple! Generally in the West also twist, and at us it is impossible, will plant, ostensibly, for slander and insults. It is clear, that no investments at a present mode are present, and will not be. What foreign investments into the country where its citizens do not trust the government to such degree can be, that not only are afraid to invest own savings in national economy, but at all do not wish to enclose personal currency savings in banks on storage. They already have experience when the government simply took away this currency on a sowing campaign. According to the press at the population on hands (as a rule, in glass jars) nearby 2mlrd dollars, that in 5 times more than in banks of Belarus.

Under the guidance of A.Lukashenka it is possible to make still though 10 programs on attraction of investments, but the result will be zero. We will tell easier: there are no mad here!

But if sanctions were limited only to it, it still half-troubles as speaks A.G. – the main thing, is glass of vodka and cracklings, and without the rest we will manage. And that after all can so to happen, that on the West in general anything to sell it will be impossible, then currency receipt to stop absolutely and will follow, ruble “collapse”, a rise in prices, falling of a standard of life of the population to the critical.

There will be one hope on Russia, there is oil, there is gas, and there is also a currency. But also here not all so is simple as will seem at first sight. Russia though it is considered great power, itself is rather dependent on the world community. On the economic power it, approximately, corresponds to an economic power of one of states of the USA, or such average European state as Austria. On a standard of living, on technological achievements in the industry and agriculture, Russia considerably concedes to the countries of the West developed economically. Considering debts of Russia to the countries to creditors, components approximately 150mlrd dollars, and that it is necessary to give them, it is possible to tell, that Russia aspires to join today as soon as possible in economic and by means of the western newest technologies to solve the economic problems. On the agenda there is a question on the introduction of Russia in NATO, rapprochement of Russia from the USA is available.

And what place in this uneasy process occupies Belarus? First of all, it would be desirable to notice, that neither the quantity of the population, nor economic power, political weight of Belarus does not go to any comparison with Russia, and especially the USA. Though the small size of the countries at all is not an obstacle to their prosperity, it is enough to recollect, how there live citizens of the small European states, such as Belgium, Holland, etc. But the governments of these countries have found the place in the world community, and are very dear members of this community. At the same time Lukashenka’s Belarus takes of absolutely special position in this community.

The teleimage and radio of Belarus has created some illusions at the citizens:

1. Our president is such «the great politician», that him anybody in the world and in soles not to suit.

2. A.G.Lukashenka without ceremony can resist to the USA and NATO, his loud political statements is direct to horror intimidate heads of the USA and the leading countries of the West.

3. We so well live (with glass of vodka and cracklings), and these western imperialists sleep and see, as though at us to select whether glass of vodka, whether cracklings.

4. Armed forces of Belarus are such powerful, that NATO is afraid of them and only therefore proud and guerrilla Belarus they do not touch, as they know, that will be bad to them.
Not so long ago on BT has acted mister Cherginets which sense of performance was reduced to that ostensibly charges against Belarus in illegal trade of the weapon, it is not that other as provocation of the government of the USA against Belarus.

Involuntarily you recollect Krylov’s fable about an elephant and the Pug: «Ah, the Pug, the nobility it is strong, if barks at an elephant! » Similar, really “elephant” has nothing to do but to arrange “provocations” against the Pug.

If it is serious, in any case of a consequence of sanctions will lay down on people shoulders. For cheap political “sketches” and adventurism of a small group of persons all Republic, each citizen and each Belarus family again answers.

Unfortunately, for acceptance of sanctions against Belarus representatives of radical opposition call also. Their motto -is the worse – the better. These vegetables from a policy do not understand, that they harm not to A.Lukashenko or the established mode, and own people. Who be, can present itself the candidate who has lost elections for US presidents driving about on the countries of Europe calling for sanctions against the USA since human rights there are broken. And our some homebrew politicians go at the expense of kind “uncles” and demand sanctions against Belarus. How the member of a family (collective) which will be called bypasses all neighbors (other organizations) with the request to stop cooperation and any help to his family (collective) on a cause of infringement the head of the family (the head of collective) Constitutions? …. Struggle against a mode by finishing of Belarussians to poverty!!! In whose sick head such idea was born? Than they differ from the guy from Shklov?

One leads up the people to poverty what eternally to correct, others demand from the countries of Europe and the USA to help them to finish to poverty the people to “get rid” of the first. In, fighters for justice!!!

The people can to deceive, force be believed in what is not present, to involve in any provocation, but sobering up will come inevitably.

Only in what it will manage to the people? And whether such tests are necessary to it?

Valery Levaneuski

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Note: Translated by means of machine translation. The original text in Russian is on a site www.levonevsky.org or www.levonevski.net
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