Valery LEVANEUSKI - personal site  
 
 
February 13th, 2007. Posted in Author's articles

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Tablets here will not help. Whether the opposition and A.Lukashenka can be united?

Whether it is possible to cure the dead man? Theoretically yes, if to give him a “correct” tablet. The dead man will recover and will run. In the report on application of a tablet it will be possible to specify, that the miracle has come to pass, and it has cured already grown cold corpse. It is possible long after that to write clause about a miracle to a tablet, to sell it even. The society will vividly discuss this theme.

And only the people little bit familiar with human anatomy, will start to doubt and ask questions: “And how he could eat a tablet, he dead? Show us this cured!” And to the dead man from these processes is not coldly and not hot. He lays and continues the natural process of decomposition and at all does not suspect that according to documents, he is alive and healthy.

Approximately so it is possible to comment on wide discussion about various initiatives and statements concerning, connected with aspiration urgently “to be united” some representatives of opposition from A.Lukashenka for light tomorrow of Belarus.

Each person has the right to the position. To make statements. To express opinion. A.Milinkevich sees, that that’s it so, the letter to A.Lukashenka, it is possible to resolve problems of democracy in Belarus. I do not share the opinion of the colleague.

It is necessary to be very naive person or make such kind, to not understand, that authority for people of type of A.Lukashenka – the most important in a life, is dearer than the life. Not for that he went to it to share with someone. It is at a subconscious level. It is the sensation of permissiveness and impunity, command people’s fates on own whim, a role of the god act on a brain of the person, as drugs. It is physiology. With it you will not argue. Such person will be friends with everybody if only still more a few at authority due to “friend”. Only this friendship keeps on “doze”. There will be no “doze” – will be the first enemy.

It is necessary to understand, that the problem of Belarus is not so much in A.Lukashenka, how many in concentration by him authority in one hands. Today A.Lukashenka possesses unlimited judicial, legislative and executive authorities. It is ground on which it is easy to become the dictator. Who today can rebuke A.Lukashenka? Nobody. Why? It will appear in prison or without a message you will disappear. So was at all dictatorships. Today Belarus people became the hostage of whims of one person and it is abnormal for a society. Therefore the basic struggle for democracy, it not struggle against A.Lukashenka, and against those powers which he began to possess. Today’s A.Lukashenka is a typical example of the person which has concentrated in the hands unlimited and uncontrollable whom authority, a product of absence of branches of authority. Only that.

To all it is already clear, that Belarus’s « a miracle the model » economic development kept exclusively due to the Russian tax bearers. According to one of leaders of the State Duma of the Russian Federation of Zhirinovsky: « For the last of one and a half ten years Russia has presented Belarus of 50 billion dollars “. So much time was necessary for Russians to understand, that A.Lukashenka never with anybody will not be united, and did not gather. It is necessary to give due to Alexander Grigorevich, he skilfully “made a fool” of the Russian management. We for a long time have understood it. Russians have just now.

A.Lukashenka’s attitudes with Russia (and with other any country) remind me one of episodes which eyewitness I became. I sit somehow once again on “day” in detention centre of October’s area police station of Grodno (in an old building). I Serve time in the form of administrative arrest for the “not authorized” meeting. To a lattice, doors of detention centre, approaches the vagabond (V), very smelly, dirty, all is scratched. There is an on duty militiaman (M) from detention centre and between them there is a conversation:

М- What do you want?
V-Give me some bread!
М-Get out of here!
V-Give some bread, not that now directly here I shall be emptied they will put me in detention centre – you will feed free of charge!

Such prospect does not arrange the militiaman; he gives bread which remains from a feed of “prisoners”. Next day the history repeats.

Approximately by such principle, unfortunately, at us the foreign policy is constructed: you will feed – well, you will cease feeding – I shall spoil. This principle underlies an especial economic way of development of Belarus.

The note: that Vagabond, by the way, have taken in hand, have found a way, and I did not see him more.

Let’s return to movement « on the West together with A.Lukashenka » in exchange on democracy. Bosh, from the point of view of the logic, full. Historical experience prompts, that any dictator never voluntary has refused authority in the name of democracy. Everything that can make such movement is to prolong an agony of authority, but already due to the European tax bearers.

As an element of politics tricks such slogan « to the Europe with dictator A.Lukashenka » is quite good. The good multirunning combination, as a result of which A.Lukashenka will finally lose support of Moscow and will not receive the real promised finance from the West, i.e. remains at the “broken” trough. The question consists in, whether this combination is necessary. But we should not overcomplicate things. All can be made much easier. And whether the question “will be led” on this «mosquito grub» of A.Lukashenka (the slang «mosquito grub» – bait for a fishing hook, “will be led” – whether the small fish will peck) too.

Anybody from serious analysts will not believe that the Belarus economy can live without the Russian commodity market. Therefore all conversations we shall change priorities in foreign policy for one day – empty conversations. Our goods in the Europe are not necessary, since in the majority they do not possess necessary consumer qualities. Nobody will feed us for “thanks”. It is a reality.

Where guarantees for the European Union, that A.Lukashenka tomorrow will not start to throw mud at the West if they will give money a little? I do not think, that in the West there live naive people and wait with open arms for A.Lukashenka, even with arms round someone from opposition.

At A.Lukashenka today an impasse in which he has tired out itself. In addition to everything, he has started “to roll flanks” on “supporter” and they will not forgive it to him} already never. Putin will not disregard spittle aside Russia.

The Belarus businessmen, elite, people understand, that from A.Lukashenka there is no future at Belarus. Our neighbors as see, that A.Lukashenka is unpredictable and do not wish to deal with him.

Dialogue with authority certainly should be conducted. But its messages should be from a position of force. The internal opposition in Belarus is practically destroyed, assemblies and meetings are actually forbidden, democratic institutes in Belarus are absent, the mass-media are under control to the state. That remains from opposition is so separated and diluted by special services, that sometimes do not know precisely to whom you talk. In some structures carrying to opposition, you total more than half of employees and the persons cooperating with special services. Sometimes dialogues, including, and in press, between separate representatives of opposition and authority remind conversations of employees of one department, but different departments. It is one of the reasons of that only the external factor, not dependent on A.Lukashenko, can affect creation of democratic institutes in Belarus.

The Belarus opposition should strengthen the positions due to external factors and achieve single policy of all neighbors of Belarus concerning democratization of a society and liquidation of dictatorship in Belarus, as institute of authority.

Lukashenka has created the scheme of management of authority at which even the mouse without his conduct does not dare utter a word. There are daredevils, as for example A.Vasilev, A.Kozulin and others, but they are isolated there and then from a society. And here the international community, he cannot supervise. Also it is huge plus and chance for Belorussians who have appeared hostages of policy, moods and A.Lukashenka’s ambitions.

There is also a moral side of a question « With Lukashenka to the Europe ». How to look in the face to native people of those politicians who were missing, to people who became victims of political reprisals in Belarus?

So, we shall sum up.

1. Lukashenka never will refuse authority and the powers, under no circumstances. He will cling to it to the last gasp.

2. Russia is not measured to finance any more the Belarus’s mode in former volume. The Russian elite is interested in change of a mode in Belarus. Special services of Russia will work against A.Lukashenka’s mode.

3. Belarus will densely cooperate with Russia at any coincidence of circumstances.

4. Belarus with the dictator is not necessary to the West.

5. The president with unlimited powers is not necessary to Belarus.

6. Change of a mode in Belarus is inevitable. The problem of opposition is to accelerate these processes.

7. « The tablet » will not help the dead man.

The world community should understand that the help, namely, in creation of democratic institutes in Belarus is necessary to Belarus people today. It is convinced, that Russia and the European Union should unite the efforts in this direction. Democratic Belarus will not divide the neighbors on good and bad, and will be that country which unites people and the states.

Valery Levaneuski

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Note: Translated by means of machine translation. The original text in Russian is on a site www.levonevsky.org or www.levonevski.net
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